"CaseRanter" made an interesting comment regarding Justin's guest post last Friday about Lebron James' "Decision".
When giving his thoughts, he predicted that Miami would lose to the Lakers in the finals next year. Now, let's think about this. A Miami-Lakers Finals next year IS probably the most likely scenario possible for next year. And you should bet against it.
This is a good gambling lesson for how to get money out of your mathematically illiterate friends. Who's the most likely team to make the finals in the West next year? The Lakers, right? So why bet money against it happening?
Because just because something is the MOST likely scenario still doesn't mean the odds are in it's favor. Because we're not in a 2-possibility system. The most likely scenario is RARELY better than 50% odds.
Follow yet? Let's take another example.
Who do you think the Republican nominee for President in 2012 is going to be? I'll put money on you that they're not. Why am I being so crazy? Because by going against the favorite, I get the odds of every other possibility. And the odds are always in my favor.
Tiger won't win the next major. You won't win your fantasy league. Wanna bet?
August 6, 2010
Lebron James: “The Decision” – A Guest Post
I had a lot of thoughts about Lebron James' recent "Decision" to leave Cleveland, pass by Chicago and go straight to Miami to play basketball with two of the other most dominant players in the game. But I brought in a ringer, a crazy sports fan and my good friend to give you the real low-down and deeper insight than I could bring.
"The Decision"
A guest post by Justin Elder
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"The Decision"
A guest post by Justin Elder
I have been to three Chicago Bulls/Cleveland Cavs basketball games since LeBron James joined the league, solely to watch one of my favorite NBA players of the past 7 years. On one occasion, I'm not sure I really remembered him scoring a basketball until the 4th quarter, but he quietly had 43 points at the end of the game.
Each time the Bulls lost yet I left the stadium satisfied because I had watched one of the best players I'd see in my adult lifetime. I also watched the entirety of his high school basketball games that were aired on ESPN during the winter of 2002-2003. I even seriously considered buying his basketball jersey but convinced myself I couldn't do that as a Bulls fan. I've read articles and seen movies about LeBron and his buddies from high school help each other live their dreams and thought how different LeBron must be from other superstar players. And, until July 8th I loved LeBron as much as I could love any other player not on the Chicago Bulls (except Kevin Durant).
For a wonderfully written, albeit 2 weeks late, analysis on why ESPN raised serious ethical questions based on "The Decision", please read the following. I believe this in-depth article to fully answer why Team LeBron chose to use a one hour program to announce a one-second decision amongst other things.
I want to focus more on the pros and cons for LeBron after that one hour decision.
Pros: (There's only one that I see, but it's a big one):
LeBron is now a Miami Heat and in prime position to win as many championships as the three egos will allow in South Beach. This was a decision that is well documented to have been planned during the summer of 2008 Beijing Olympics. Though talking about the possibility and actually pulling it off are two different things, it's clear that all three stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh) were willing to sacrifice pay in order to play together as evidenced by Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks being the highest paid free agent this summer. Pat Riley also did whatever was necessary to get them there, something no other team had either the guts or the stupidity to pull off.
Cons:
LeBron's popularity fallout could not been anticipated when Team LeBron first pitched the idea to have a one-hour special, however I believe a few things really hurt his credibility and turned him from a lovable, one of the boys type kind of guy to a narcissistic evil empire player. First, just two days earlier Dwayne Wade (a similar caliber player) and Chris Bosh (a short step down caliber player) announced their decision in a short "Breaking News" interview on Sportscenter. If the Heat are truly all about playing together as a team, why not announce the decision as a team of three instead of two? Second, Kevin Durant, reigning NBA scoring champion and quickly climbing the ranks of top 5/10 players announced his decision to sign a contact extension via Twitter with zero media attention and continued to go about his business as usual. After we saw how players of similar quality made their decision it became very clear during "The Decision" that LeBron only cared about himself and fans quickly turned against him and his new team.
Although I don't believe LeBron only cares about himself, that was the perception that was given off and one I'm not sure he will be able to overcome. For the next few years every city will be rooting for their team to annihilate the Heat. It won't happen, the team is too good, but why do you think teams don't want Terrell Owens or Barry Bonds on their roster? Players like this bring in extra reporters with extra questions and pretty soon the hype and pressure on this team will be something the NBA has never seen and to me, LeBron has become as hated in his sport as either of those guys in theirs. If this is true, there's no doubt that this team will fall well short of winning multiple NBA championships.
I believe this to be the biggest negative for LeBron. No matter how many rings he wins in Miami, Wade will always have one more than he does. This year Kobe Bryant won his 5th ring and the media talk was how he measured up to Jordan. None of them said he was better, but if Kobe were to win 2 more and have 7, there would definitely be those out there saying without question that Kobe was better. At the end of LeBron's career, it's inconceivable to think that he won't be upset if he's won 5,6,7 championships and yet Wade will have won one more.
His legacy can now never end up as the NBA's all time greatest player, no matter what he accomplishes.
August 5, 2010
Leasing Cars is for Economic Idiots?
Growing up in the 80s, my dad told me about a magical time in history. A car lease that he made a total net profit it.
See, when you sign a lease, you agree to a possible buy-out price once the lease is over. Due to severe hyperinflation at the time, the car's value went way up (as did all goods) during his lease period. So, he was able to buy-out the car at the end of the lease for far less than the car was actually worth, and instantly sold it back to the dealer for a net profit.
Ever since then, I thought that there was a way to beat the leasing. But I've realized that was an extraordinary circumstance. And maybe the common logic that leasing is stupid or only for people who can't be seen driving a Mercedes more than three years old, is right.
Because economically, when else would leasing make sense?
Let's say you're going to buy a $16,000 car, hoping it will last for 10 years. And let's put a conservative repairs estimate over those 10 years being $2,500. That's $18,500 over 120 months, or $154/mo.
If you can find a $150/mo lease payment, leasing would definitely be worth it, especially since you also get the benefit of a new car every 3 years. So with that perk, even $165-$170 might be worth it.
And that's actually close to the some of the lease offers you can find on smaller cars nowadays. Or am I missing something again?
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See, when you sign a lease, you agree to a possible buy-out price once the lease is over. Due to severe hyperinflation at the time, the car's value went way up (as did all goods) during his lease period. So, he was able to buy-out the car at the end of the lease for far less than the car was actually worth, and instantly sold it back to the dealer for a net profit.
Ever since then, I thought that there was a way to beat the leasing. But I've realized that was an extraordinary circumstance. And maybe the common logic that leasing is stupid or only for people who can't be seen driving a Mercedes more than three years old, is right.
Because economically, when else would leasing make sense?
Let's say you're going to buy a $16,000 car, hoping it will last for 10 years. And let's put a conservative repairs estimate over those 10 years being $2,500. That's $18,500 over 120 months, or $154/mo.
If you can find a $150/mo lease payment, leasing would definitely be worth it, especially since you also get the benefit of a new car every 3 years. So with that perk, even $165-$170 might be worth it.
And that's actually close to the some of the lease offers you can find on smaller cars nowadays. Or am I missing something again?
August 4, 2010
Cost Analysis of Junking Your Car
At what point should you give up on your car?
Tradition states that it's when the cost of the repair is more than the cost of the car. But, that's an incomplete analysis. Because that's simply treating the vehicle as a parked asset and not a means for transportation.
If the car is worth $500 and the repair costs $600, it still makes sense to make the repair if I get more than $600 out of the car in the future. And while there is some risk involved in that not knowing the future, the economic choice is to choose the repair.
But, I feel like I'm still missing some factors? What else do I need to think about? Let's solve this today so tomorrow I can talk about leasing, which I've always wanted to figure out how to make sense of.
In other news, my wife's company, Sweet Table Chicago, designed a dessert table for recent Stanley Cup Winner and Chicago Blackhawk defenseman, Brent Sopel. The party was ridiculous. And the table was her best yet. Check out the pics.
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Tradition states that it's when the cost of the repair is more than the cost of the car. But, that's an incomplete analysis. Because that's simply treating the vehicle as a parked asset and not a means for transportation.
If the car is worth $500 and the repair costs $600, it still makes sense to make the repair if I get more than $600 out of the car in the future. And while there is some risk involved in that not knowing the future, the economic choice is to choose the repair.
But, I feel like I'm still missing some factors? What else do I need to think about? Let's solve this today so tomorrow I can talk about leasing, which I've always wanted to figure out how to make sense of.
In other news, my wife's company, Sweet Table Chicago, designed a dessert table for recent Stanley Cup Winner and Chicago Blackhawk defenseman, Brent Sopel. The party was ridiculous. And the table was her best yet. Check out the pics.
August 3, 2010
Driving Tip of the Day
"You should always drive like there's a cake in your back seat."
People always ask the question, "Are you a good driver?" But I don't think that's a great question. Because what does that mean? Does that mean being ultra conservative and safe? Or does that mean the ability to drive extraordinarily fast without being too reckless?
Because the second one requires much more skill. But I realized that it's not a great idea when you have passengers or pastries in your car. The first think you're nuts, and the latter fall over.
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People always ask the question, "Are you a good driver?" But I don't think that's a great question. Because what does that mean? Does that mean being ultra conservative and safe? Or does that mean the ability to drive extraordinarily fast without being too reckless?
Because the second one requires much more skill. But I realized that it's not a great idea when you have passengers or pastries in your car. The first think you're nuts, and the latter fall over.
August 2, 2010
Why I Love Google
Last night, I clicked "send" in Gmail when a notification popped up.
"Did you mean to attach files?" You wrote "I've attached" in your message, but there are no files attached. Send anyway?"
This is the sort of thing that keeps me falling in like with the ridiculously growing online monstrosity that is Google.
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"Did you mean to attach files?" You wrote "I've attached" in your message, but there are no files attached. Send anyway?"
This is the sort of thing that keeps me falling in like with the ridiculously growing online monstrosity that is Google.
July 29, 2010
Thin: Clothing Store Concept
Thin. A clothing store that exclusively sells thin cotton clothing.
You know that one old t-shirt you always wear because it's so soft and breathable? That's your whole wardrobe now. From casual to business casual. Plus, people will like walking into a store named "Thin", because it'll make them feel slender. Yes, they might think the store only sells Kate Bosworth-sizes at first. But, that could get us some good PR. So, what do you think? May I have your $200,000 in start-up funds now?
0 comments
You know that one old t-shirt you always wear because it's so soft and breathable? That's your whole wardrobe now. From casual to business casual. Plus, people will like walking into a store named "Thin", because it'll make them feel slender. Yes, they might think the store only sells Kate Bosworth-sizes at first. But, that could get us some good PR. So, what do you think? May I have your $200,000 in start-up funds now?
July 28, 2010
Tell People “Why”
"Breathe through your nose, Olsen!" my high school cross-country coach would yell at me.
I thought he was just trying to punish me. I thought it was some sort of evil lung endurance training. What I didn't know was that breathing through your nose while running is the fastest way to get oxygen to your lungs.
But I thought he was being mean, and ignored him.
Lesson for the day: Don't just tell people what to do. Tell them why.
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I thought he was just trying to punish me. I thought it was some sort of evil lung endurance training. What I didn't know was that breathing through your nose while running is the fastest way to get oxygen to your lungs.
But I thought he was being mean, and ignored him.
Lesson for the day: Don't just tell people what to do. Tell them why.
July 27, 2010
Lost 25 Pounds Eating the “Same” Food
I currently weigh 175. I haven't been this low since I got married. And I've been trying to figure out why. Because my eating habits haven't changed dramatically - in terms of food type and food quantity. But what has changed is the quality of the food itself.
Because Food, Inc.
freaked me out. And since then, I've gone a lot more organic. With milk. Meat. Cereal. Chips. Condiments.
I really try to stay away from buying stuff with high-fructose corn syrup in it and other crazy amounts of preservatives. Because I'm becoming more and more confident that my body simply didn't know what to do with those things. Evolutionally speaking, high fructose corn syrup is like plastic to our body. It's completely unrecognizable. And how can your body adapt when it doesn't know what's going on inside of you.
Help a body out.
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Because Food, Inc.
freaked me out. And since then, I've gone a lot more organic. With milk. Meat. Cereal. Chips. Condiments.I really try to stay away from buying stuff with high-fructose corn syrup in it and other crazy amounts of preservatives. Because I'm becoming more and more confident that my body simply didn't know what to do with those things. Evolutionally speaking, high fructose corn syrup is like plastic to our body. It's completely unrecognizable. And how can your body adapt when it doesn't know what's going on inside of you.
Help a body out.
July 26, 2010
American Soccer Fans Don’t Want You
American soccer fans don't want you. They like liking the sport that no one else does. Especially in America. It's theirs. And they like it that way.
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It's the same reason why I don't really want you to know that M. Ward's Post-War
Album is probably one of the greatest single albums in American music. It's mine. And I like the fact that I found it myself. And if you guys all started liking it, I'm no longer original.
Album is probably one of the greatest single albums in American music. It's mine. And I like the fact that I found it myself. And if you guys all started liking it, I'm no longer original.I might as well just play Bon Jovi records and watch Sex in the City.