July 28, 2011

Evidence-Based Gambling

Yesterday, we discussed the recent push of "evidence-based practice" within the medical community and questioned how ridiculous it was that this is only a recent push.

Today, we talk sports.

"Moneyball" or "Sabermetrics" is the idea of objectively valuating athletes and situational decisions in sports based purely on statistical outcomes.

Some people hate this. I recently had this discussion with a friend of mine who said, "Stats are useless. I don't need to see stats to know how to manage a game."

I countered with, "Well, if you're making the right decisions, the stats would back you up. The stat guys are on your side."

He retorted, "No, I don't need them."

I said, "But what if I showed you stats that proved objectively, over time, you were wrong? Would that change your mind?"

"Absolutely not."

This friend of mine thinks his intuition as a sports God is vastly superior to anything statistical measurement or science could calculate...

Does that arrogance remind you of any doctors you know? Now, this is all starting to make a little more sense.